It is that time of the year when European club managers whinge about the loss of key players to the tournament, but this time around the complaints are relatively muted. That's because the failures of Egypt, who won the last three ANCs, Cameroon (Benoit Assou-Ekotto, Sebastien Bassong, Alex Song, Samuel Eto'o), Algeria (Hassan Yebda, Madjid Bougherra), South Africa (Steven Pienaar) and Nigeria (Yakubu Ayegbeni, Peter Odemwingie) mean that several managers who expected to be without such players have got a welcome boost. Except in Yakubu's case, as the Blackburn striker will be suspended after his red card against Fulham at the weekend.
The surprise casulaties listed above led to the bookies identifying two clear favourites, Ghana and Ivory Coast. Ghana were the width of a crossbar away from becoming the first African side to reach the semi-finals at the World Cup in 2010 and they remain a powerful force on the continent, even if they haven't won the African title in 30 years. Asamoah Gyan is the go-to guy up front, with Marseille's Andre Ayew also a key member of the side. Ghana's is generally a young team, although the likes of Isaac Vorsah and John Mensah provide plentiful experience at the back. Ivory Coast haven't quite fulfilled their potential as much as the Ghanaians but on paper they have the strongest side at the finals. Their line-up will be familiar to Premier League followers, with the likes of Didier Drogba, Salomon Kalou, Gervinho, Cheick Tiote and the Toure brothers all set to feature. Another player well worth keeping an eye on is Seydou Doumbia, the CSKA Moscow striker who leads this seaon's Champions League goalscoring charts.
The only real challengers to the two favourites are Senegal, who had regressed since their fairytale run to the 2002 World Cup quarter-finals but are on an upward curve again. They are blessed with striking options, with Lille hotshot Moussa Sow, the experiences Mamadou Niang, the in-form Demba Ba and his soon to be team-mate at Newcastle, Papiss Cisse, all competing for starting places. The side of a decade ago has completely broken up, with veteran full-back Omar Daf the only member of the current squad to have featured in '02. Those looking for a decent outside bet for the trophy can cast their eyes on Morocco, who are coming good after a long spell in the wilderness. Wingers Mbark Boussoufa and Ismail Aissati have impressed with European clubs while QPR enigma Adel Taarabt is also likely to play a key role. The main man up front, Arsenal fans may be surprised to find out, is Marouane Chamakh, who could do with an impressive tournament to boost his confidence.
The winner is highly likely to come from one of that quartet, although previous ANCs have seen fancied nations come a cropper in the knockout stages and, with so many of the traditional powers having fallen by the wayside, most of the sides at the 2012 finals will see it as an opportunity to put their name on the map. Despite squeezing into the tournament due to group rivals Malawi conceding an injury time equaliser, Tunisia are often competitive at this level and remain a dangerous outfit. Mali, who include Barcelona's Seydou Keita in their line-up, are another side who have performed well in this tournament in recent times. The likes of Zambia and Angola could benefit from a favourable group stage draw and make an impact. Guinea, meanwhile, have several players with experience in major European leagues and are capable of upsetting more fancied teams.
The remaining seven qualified nations could be up against it to advance from the group stage. Gabon have improved over the last couple of years and can count on home advantage, but it's difficult to see them overhaul some of the stronger sides in their group. For Libya, merely getting to the finals is a fantastic achievement considering what the country has gone through in recent months. Burkina Faso were unbeaten in qualifying but they had to survive an eligibility controversy over certain players just to keep their place at the finals. Sudan were one of the strongest sides in Africa in the embryonic days of this competititon in the 1960s and 70s but none of their squad has European experience.
Three sides will be making their ANC debut in 2012. Botswana topped a qualifying group containing three other sides who would have been regarded as superior. Niger owe their qualification to a hilarious cock-up by South Africa's coach who, thinking a draw would take them through on goal difference, played for and got a 0-0, only to find out that head-to-head results were the chief separator of teams level on points. Then there is Equatorial Guinea, co-hosts of the tournament and ranked 43rd of Africa's 53 member nations. It says a lot about the quality of players in the country that most of their line-up has been imported from other nations, even if their links to the country range from questionable to non-existent. To put it another way, they're on a hiding to nothing.
This could be the most unpredictable, most open African Nations Cup in history. Previous finals have shown that even odds-on favourites can be caught on a bad day and any team who gets some momentum behind them could make some serious headlines at the tournament. At least this year's finals can begin without the shadow of tragedy, after the 2010 edition was overshadowed by the terrorist attack on Togo's team bus. The tournament kicks off this Saturday between Equatorial Guinea and Libya and it will have some job living up to the last opening match two years ago, when Angola led Mali 4-0 with 11 minutes to go and the game ended 4-4.
Ghana and Ivory Coast are on course to meet in the final if they win their respective groups and knockout matches, so that scenario takes my fancy, even if Senegal and Morocco are both capable of toppling the two favourites. There's not a lot to separate the Ghanaians and Ivorians but if I had to call a winner I'd narrowly lean in favour of Ghana, who have the pedigree of a World Cup quarter-final and a greater mental resolve than the Ivorians.
PREDICTIONS
Group A: 1st Senegal, 2nd Zambia, 3rd Libya, 4th Equatorial Guinea
Group B: 1st Ivory Coast, 2nd Angola, 3rd Burkina Faso, 4th Sudan
Group C: 1st Morocco, 2nd Tunisia, 3rd Gabon, 4th Niger
Group D: 1st Ghana, 2nd Mali, 3rd Guinea, 4th Botswana
QF: Senegal v Angola, Ivory Coast v Zambia, Morocco v Mali, Ghana v Tunisia
SF: Senegal v Ghana, Morocco v Ivory Coast
Winners: Ghana
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